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Finance & economics · Topic
Risk-Neutral Pricing
stochastic calculus · measure theory · probability theory
Risk-neutral pricing is the theoretical foundation of modern derivatives pricing. By changing probability measure — from the real-world $\mathbb{P}$ to the risk-neutral $\mathbb{Q}$ — we price any derivative as a discounted expected payoff, regardless of investor risk preferences.

The fundamental theorem of asset pricing

FTAP (Harrison & Pliska, 1981): A market is arbitrage-free if and only if there exists an equivalent martingale measure $\mathbb{Q}$ (risk-neutral measure) such that discounted asset prices $S_t/B_t$ are $\mathbb{Q}$-martingales.

Change of measure: the Radon-Nikodym derivative

Moving from $\mathbb{P}$ to $\mathbb{Q}$ via the Girsanov theorem: if $W_t^\mathbb{P}$ is a $\mathbb{P}$-Brownian motion, then:

\[W_t^\mathbb{Q} = W_t^\mathbb{P} + \int_0^t \theta_s\,ds\]

is a $\mathbb{Q}$-Brownian motion, where $\theta_t = (\mu - r)/\sigma$ is the market price of risk.

Under $\mathbb{Q}$, all assets grow at the risk-free rate $r$:

\[dS_t = r S_t\,dt + \sigma S_t\,dW_t^\mathbb{Q}\]

The pricing formula

Any derivative with payoff $H_T$ at time $T$ is priced at:

\[V_t = e^{-r(T-t)}\mathbb{E}^\mathbb{Q}[H_T \mid \mathcal{F}_t]\]

Black-Scholes as a special case: for a European call $H_T = (S_T - K)^+$, this integral evaluates to the Black-Scholes formula.

Incomplete markets

When the market has more risk sources than traded assets (e.g. stochastic volatility), the risk-neutral measure is not unique — there is a range of arbitrage-free prices. Additional assumptions or market instruments are needed to pin down a unique price.