math concept 105 topics use this
Math concept
Probability Theory
Core equation
$$P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cap B)$$
Probability theory provides the mathematical foundation for reasoning under uncertainty. Measure-theoretic probability unifies discrete and continuous random variables and underpins statistics, ML, finance, and every quantitative field.

Kolmogorov axioms

A probability space $(\Omega, \mathcal{F}, P)$ consists of a sample space $\Omega$, a $\sigma$-algebra $\mathcal{F}$, and a measure $P$ satisfying:

  1. $P(A) \geq 0$ for all $A \in \mathcal{F}$
  2. $P(\Omega) = 1$
  3. $P(\bigcup_{i=1}^\infty A_i) = \sum_{i=1}^\infty P(A_i)$ for disjoint events

Key distributions

Distribution PMF/PDF Mean Variance
Bernoulli$(p)$ $p^x(1-p)^{1-x}$ $p$ $p(1-p)$
Binomial$(n,p)$ $\binom{n}{k}p^k(1-p)^{n-k}$ $np$ $np(1-p)$
Poisson$(\lambda)$ $\lambda^k e^{-\lambda}/k!$ $\lambda$ $\lambda$
Exponential$(\lambda)$ $\lambda e^{-\lambda x}$ $1/\lambda$ $1/\lambda^2$
Gaussian$(\mu,\sigma^2)$ see gaussian-distribution $\mu$ $\sigma^2$

Expectation and variance

\[\mathbb{E}[X] = \int x\, dP(x), \qquad \text{Var}(X) = \mathbb{E}[X^2] - \mathbb{E}[X]^2\]

The law of total expectation: $\mathbb{E}[X] = \mathbb{E}[\mathbb{E}[X \mid Y]]$.

Fields that use this concept
Finance & economics Actuarial science
Actuarial Present Value
The probability-weighted present value of future insurance benefits or annuity payments, combining mortality probabilities with financial discounting.
Claims Reserving
Actuarial methods for estimating the amount an insurer must set aside to pay claims that have been incurred but not yet fully settled.
Credibility Theory
A Bayesian framework for blending an insured's own loss experience with population-level data to produce more accurate premium estimates.
Embedded Options in Insurance
Financial options implicit in insurance and annuity contracts—such as guaranteed annuity rates and variable annuity guarantees—that require stochastic modeling and hedging for fair valuation under Solvency II.
Life Tables
A systematic tabulation of mortality experience showing the probability of death and survival at each age, forming the foundation of actuarial calculations.
Loss Models
Mathematical models for insurance claim frequency and severity, culminating in aggregate loss distributions used for pricing, reserving, and capital modeling.
Risk Measures in Actuarial Science
Quantitative tools for summarizing the risk profile of a loss distribution, including VaR, TVaR, coherent measures, and distortion risk measures used in insurance regulation.
Ruin Theory
The mathematical study of when an insurer's surplus process first becomes negative, providing bounds and exact formulas for the probability of ruin under the classical Cramér-Lundberg model.
Survival Models in Actuarial Science
Probabilistic models for the future lifetime of individuals and groups, including joint life, multiple decrement, and copula-based dependent mortality models used in pension and life insurance valuation.
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